SAMSI Working Group on Probabilistic Numerics
Duration: Until May 31st 2018, as part of the Program on Quasi-Monte Carlo and High-Dimensional Sampling Methods for Applied Mathematics.
Group Leaders: Tim Sullivan and Chris Oates
Description: The accuracy and robustness of numerical predictions that are based on mathematical models depend critically upon the construction of accurate discrete approximations to key quantities of interest. The exact error due to approximation will be unknown to the analyst, but worst-case upper bounds can often be obtained. This working group aims, instead, to develop Probabilistic Numerical Methods, which provide the analyst with a richer, probabilistic quantification of the numerical error in their output, thus providing better tools for reliable statistical inference.
- Reference priors for the probabilistic solution of differential equations.
- Heavy-tailed stable distributions for robust uncertainty quantification.
- Statistical estimation with multi-resolution operator decompositions.
- Probabilistic numerical methods as Bayesian inversion methods.
- François-Xavier Briol - University of Warwick, UK and Imperial College London, UK
- Jon Cockayne - University of Warwick, UK
- Mark Girolami - Imperial College London, UK and the Alan Turing Institute, UK
- Philipp Hennig - Max Planck Institute, Tübingen, Germany
- Han Cheng Lie - Free University of Berlin, Germany and Zuse Institute Berlin, Germany
- Chris Oates - Newcastle University, UK and the Alan Turing Institute, UK
- Houman Owhadi - California Institute of Technology, USA
- Florian Schaefer - California Institute of Technology, USA
- Andrew Stuart - California Institute of Technology, USA
- Tim Sullivan - Free University of Berlin, Germany and Zuse Institute Berlin, Germany
Workshops and Visits:
- Summer 2017: F Schaefer to visit M Girolami and F-X Briol @ Alan Turing Institute and Imperial College London.
- Autumn 2017: F-X Briol to visit H Owhadi, A Stuart and F Schaefer @ Caltech.
- Spring 2018: Meeting of the working group at the Alan Turing Institute, London. Date to be announced.
- 16-02-2017: C Oates to speak @ the UNSW Workshop on High-Dimensional Approximation. Talk title: Bayesian Probabilistic Numerical Computation.
- 01-03-2017: J Cockayne to speak @ SIAM Conference on Computation Science and Engineering. Talk title: Probabilistic Meshless Methods for Partial Differential Equations and Bayesian Inverse Problems. [Video]
- 24-03-2017: C Oates to give a tutorial on Probabilistic Numerics at the University of New South Wales.
- May 2017: M Girolami to speak @ Bayesian, Fiducial, and Frequentist Conference.
- June 2017: T Sullivan and C Oates to speak @ ICERM workshop on Probabilistic Scientific Computing: Statistical inference approaches to numerical analysis and algorithm design, organised by P Hennig, H Owhadi and others.
- June 18-23, 2017: P Hennig and M Girolami to run the Dobbiaco Summer School on Probabilistic Numerics in Bolzano, Italy.
Reading Group: (organised by F-X Briol)
- 24-01-2017: Louis Ellam - A statistical model of urban retail structure.
- 07-02-2017: Jon Cockayne - Discussion of "A probabilistic model for the numerical solution of initial value problems" by Schober et al.
- 21-02-2017: Chris Oates - Discussion of "Probabilistic interpretation of linear solvers" by P. Hennig.
- 07-03-2017: Francois-Xavier Briol - Discussion of "An introduction to sampling via measure transport" by Marzouk et al.
- 21-03-2017: Tim Sullivan - Discussion of "MAP estimators and their consistency in Bayesian nonparametric inverse problems" by Dashti et al and "Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems", by Helin and Burger.
- 04-04-2017: Han Cheng Lie - Discussion of "Why does Monte Carlo Fail to Work Properly in High-Dimensional Optimization Problems?", by Polyak and Shcherbakov.
- 18-04-2017: Jon Cockayne - Linear Algebra for Probabilistic Numerics.
- 02-05-2017: Louis Ellam - Pre-conditioned Ensemble Monte Carlo.
- 16-05-2017: Onur Teymur - TBC.
- 30-05-2017: Toni Karvonen - Discussion of "Fully symmetric kernel quadrature" by Karvonen and Särkkä
- 13-06-2017: Chris Oates - TBC
- 28-06-2017: Hans Kersting - TBC
- 11-07-2017: Alessandro Barp - Information Geometry and applications to MCMC and measure transport.
Barp A, Briol F-X, Kennedy A, Girolami M. (2018) Geometry and Dynamics for Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Annual Reviews of Statistics and its Applications, 5, to appear.
Lie HC, Stuart AM, Sullivan TJ (2017) Strong Convergence Rates of Probabilistic Integrators for Ordinary Differential Equations. [arXiv]
Cockayne J, Oates CJ, Sullivan T, Girolami M. (2017) Bayesian Probabilistic Numerical Methods. [arXiv]